Archive for the ‘NFL Draft order’ Category

Where can the Giants trade up to?

March 26, 2009

Before this conversation of ‘where the Giants can trade up to’ even starts, let me preface it by saying that in general the second round is the best value in the draft. It is one of the rules. So for all of you yahoos (including Wonder) who want to trade up for the marquee player in Round #1, caveat emptor.

Now that that qualifier is out of the way, let’s play fantasy GM for a moment or two. Understand that the draft value chart is not the be-all-end-all of precise measurement. But it is what we have. In my humble opinion it is flawed because it does not ‘butterfly’ properly (the difference in value between pick 6 and 7 has to be LARGER than the difference from pick 7 to 8). But we see all over the chart that the math is incorrect. We will leave it at that.

Back to the Giants, NYG24 has supplied us with the #s where we pick, and I am taking him at his word.

slot points
29> 640
45> 450
60> 300
91> 136
100> 100
129> 43
151> 31
164> 26
200> 11
238> 2
total = ~1740 points

So if the Giants wanted to pull a Mike Ditka and trade all of our picks to jump to the head of the class, we could get the #4 or #5 pick in the draft. NOT WORTH IT. This short-changes the skills of Reese. It does get a little more sane and palpable to want to package our #1, along with one of the #2’s and one of the #3’s.

#1 + #2 + #3 = pts ( moves you up to)
=====================================
29 + 45 + 91 = 1226 (11th or 12th pick)
29 + 45 +100 = 1191 (12th pick)
29 + 60 + 91 = 1076 (14th or 15th pick)
29 + 60 +100 = 1040 (15th pick)

The fact that the Giants got that #3 pick (100th selection) makes me think that Reese is more likely than not to play some poker and see about his options in moving up, because now he can package something together and not be left empty in later rounds. All he would need is a team that is willing to trade down somewhere in that 11-15 area without killing him for a SANE deal to get done. And once Reese is there, he can aim and fire point blank and get someone he covets while still having a 2nd and 3rd rounder left.

Another possibility not to dismiss is that Reese stands pat at 29 BUT he packages his 2’s and 3’s together for anything from #16 on down in the first round.

The Eagles love to trade down to the second round, and since they have two #1’s, they might easily be enticed to trade down with the Giants for two #2s…… the Giants could trade their two #2’s and a #4 for the 21st pick in the draft, simultaneously knock Philadelphia out of the WR selection for H-Bey and also keep #29 for themselves.

I do not remember the last time the Giants had 5 picks in the first three rounds. You have to go back to 1986 for that. (Before hitting the link, if you can name all of them, you are probably a liar! Hint: there were SIX, including 4 in Round 2.) If this draft were not so weak (as compared to last year, for example), I would prefer standing pat and just drafting 10 players and being loaded for many years to come.

Summary: Reese has many cards he can play. If he finds a team willing to trade down, he has the bullets to trade up. He can do so in a myriad number of ways. He can stay right where he is. He can use his #1 to move up or he can use his other picks. So he has a great deal of flexibility. Should be a very interesting afternoon.

Compensatory Draft Picks

March 24, 2009

From CBS Sportsline last year:
Under terms of the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement, a team losing more or better compensatory free agents than it acquires in a year is eligible to receive compensatory draft picks.

The number of picks a team receives equals the net loss of compensatory free agents up to a maximum of four. The 32 compensatory choices announced today will supplement the 220 choices in the seven rounds of the 2008 NFL Draft (April 26-27). This year, the compensatory picks will be positioned within the third through seventh rounds based on the value of the compensatory free agents lost.

Compensatory free agents are determined by a formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. The formula was developed by the NFL Management Council. Not every free agent lost or signed by a club is covered by this formula.

From what I have seen historically, the best draft pick position a team can get compensation for is the end of the third round. (Has anyone seen a compensation pick in round 2?.. I cannot recall one.)

Updated: the Giants received a third round pick #100 in the draft. To have a #1, two #2’s and two #3’s is some haul.

Mitch gives us some Braylon Edwards, Plax and draft

March 23, 2009

Many thanks to Mitch for filling us in on the latest…

Report: New York Giants discussed trade for Cleveland Browns’ Braylon Edwards
by Mike Garafolo/The Star-Ledger
Sunday March 22, 2009, 9:28 PM
Tony Dejak/APThe Giants reportedly pursued a trade for Edwards.
There have been plenty of rumblings the Giants had talked with the Browns about a trade for their top wide receiver, Braylon Edwards. Those rumors had revolved around the Giants’ sending defensive end Mathias Kiwanuka to Cleveland. I had heard nothing to substantiate the rumors, so I didn’t mention them here.

But Ken Palmer of The Giant Insider reported today that, while the Giants never dangled Kiwanuka, they did inquire about Edwards.

To read the full story, you need a Scout.com subscription, but I’ve seen the full report and I’ll tell you what Palmer’s reporting:

The Giants offered the Browns the two draft picks they received from the Saints last year in exchange for TE Jeremy Shockey: a second-round pick and a fifth-rounder.

The Browns countered by asking for WR Steve Smith. The Giants said no.

The Giants then offered either of two other WRs: Domenik Hixon or Mario Manningham. The Browns said no.

The talks died down after that last exchange, though they could pick up at draft time.

I wish I could tell you more on this one, but I have nothing as of right now. What I do know is Palmer has been covering the Giants for a long time and has been out in front of plenty of stories.

I don’t doubt the Giants inquired about Edwards. And when Jerry Reese is asked about this report, he’ll probably give us the old, “We investigate everything. You know that.” But the exchange of several offers indicates this was more than just due diligence here. And while Palmer is suggesting the talks could spark again come draft time, I’m thinking Plaxico Burress’ legal situation could be the catalyst. If he goes to jail or is suspended for a while, the Giants will need to move along to the plan they have for Burress’ absence. And like Tom Coughlin said at the scouting combine, “it’d be great to have a player, if it’s not Plaxico, but with Plaxico’s magnitude, on our football team.” That player could be the 6-3, 215-pound Edwards, who surely wowed the Giants with his five catches for 154 yards and a touchdown against them last season – even if he has had a bad case of the dropsies of late.

The only part of the report that does surprise me is the Giants’ offering Manningham. I know the coaching staff is very, very high on him and the front office obviously loved him before the draft. So maybe that’s a sign they’re very interested in Edwards.

Right now, who knows? We’ll have to stay tuned on this one.

***

Speaking of Burress, from what I gather, there could be some news on his legal situation this week, despite the fact his next scheduled court date isn’t until next Tuesday, the 31st. I’m not sure exactly what we’ll hear, as I have precious few details, but I’m expecting to know more at some point. Sorry if that’s a tease, but it’s even a tease to me.

***

In addition to the Burress stuff, we might have even more news in a surprisingly busy week. I expect the league to announce the compensatory picks for April’s draft at some point during the owners’ meetings. The Giants should get at least one high pick after losing Girbil Wilson, Reggie Torbor and Kawika Mitchell to free agency last year. This guy tries to predict the picks each year and he says the Giants will get a fourth-round pick and possibly a third.

And we’ll find out the slate of games for opening weekend and Thanksgiving. The Bergen Record is reporting the Giants are expecting five prime-time games. The full schedule likely won’t be announced until next month.

MG

Rule Change Proposals

March 22, 2009

NFL discussions of potential rule changes for 2009.

The one which interests me is that the draft would be reseeded by how you exited the playoffs. That actually seems somewhat logical. Wherever possible, the NFL must make the draft order more equitable. One of my pet peeves is tiebreakers for the draft, and how the loser of a tiebreaker gets punished inordinately by those quirky ‘strength of schedule’ bullbrown rules and then suffers with a raw deal through the whole draft. Look at the difference between picking 3rd and 6th last season, Matt Ryan and Vernon Gholston… why the Jets did not get to pick at the head of the tiebreak EVERY subsequent round is beyond me. And like I said, if you are the Falcons and don’t like that deal, YOU CHOOSE what you want! They will never give up the first round advantage, and that is proof positive of how inequitable the current system is.

Wonder’s NFL Draft Analysis: Top 5 picks on Defense by Position

April 18, 2008

DT: Dorsey/Ellis, Balmer, Bryant (true NOSE), Okam- out of shape, horrible at combine…but if someone like Parcells can kick his a** for a year, watch out…if not, out of league

DE: Gholston, Long, Merling (VERY underrated), Harvey (beast or bust), Cambell (beast or bust)

OLB: Rivers, Groves (CONV..huge potential or bust), Avril, Howard, Adibi/Wheeler

ILB: Mayo, Connor, Lofton, Crable, Bell

CB: DRCromartie, McKelvin, Jenkins, Cason, Talib/Flowers (BOTH need to play cover 2)

S: Demps, Johnson, Phillips, Morgan, Barrett (HUGE POTENTIAL…would be an all-pro after being on bench with BeleD**K for year or so..and learning…)

K: punter Brooks

Wonder’s NFL Draft Analysis: Top 5 picks on Offense by Position

April 17, 2008

QB: Ryan, Flacco, Brohm, Henne, Johnson (GREAT VALUE !! as project if late 3rd-4th round)

RB: McFadden, Mendenhall/Stewart (Tie), Jones, Johnson (FAST Leon Washington)

WR: Thomas, Sweed, Hardy, Kelly, Jackson…LOTS OF DEPTH here for SMALLISH fast guys..Avery, Royal, etc…have to grab SIZE early !!

TE: Keller, Bennett, Davis (KELLEN NOT FRED!!), Davis, Cottam (strictly potential, etc. blocker – all around)/Rucker

OT: Long, Clady, Otah, Cherilus, Collins/Baker…NOT WILLIAMS !!! NICKS, Cousins…plenty of potential..DEEP

OG: ALBERT, ALBERT, ALBERT, ALBERT, AND ALBERT….then, Rachal, Shuening, Young (conv.), Thomas/McGlynn

C: Pollack..STOP !! all suck..but…Sullivan, Justice…ok

If you have questions for Wonder, let me know via email or comment.

ULTIMATENYG is DRAFT CENTRAL

April 16, 2008

How often does Ultimatenyg hype itself? With 10 days to go before the draft, fasten your seat belts because this blog is going to be your one and only required stop for

EXCELLENT RELIABLE OPINIONATED draft coverage.

How is this possible? We have a secret weapon…. WONDER.

Who is Wonder? Only the most knowledgeable draft expert around. Some people have a life. The draft IS Wonder’s life!

Harold, one of the charter members of this blog from before inception when this was still an email group, is understated in handing out compliments. To anyone. Unless the are deserved. Listen to his comments on Wonder:

“Wonder comments on the draft as it happens, and he is always right. In an example where he preferred a particular team take player A over player B, the WORST Wonder ever was in hindsight is a PUSH, where both end up not making it. Otherwise, he is simply PHENOMENAL. And he is phenomenal every year, year after year. I’ve heard his draft insights, he knows his stuff, he is unbelievable.”

If I told you all the stories about what he said and when he said it, you would not believe it. You would think it is pure hype. Start following this blog now, WONDER IS HERE. In coming days we will give Wonder’s pre draft thoughts. And then we will have Wonder’s draft commentary piped into the blog on Day 1 (and tentatively Day 2) live. Enjoy the best draft coverage. Tell your friends. Enjoy Wonder-ful commentary on what is the true score on the draft from the best- WONDER. Only on Ultimatenyg.

NY Giants hike ticket prices $7 for 2008

March 22, 2008

The New York Giants announced ticket prices for 2008 will go up by $7 per seat per game, or an 8% hike.

If this were the worst of it, the price alone would not really bother me. Baseball and the NBA rip off people for MUCH longer seasons where they don’t show up for every game. Guys don’t run out ground balls and only start playing basketball hard in Q4. Football is actually a value proposition. But where things start to slide is that the NFL used to hold these fall and winter outdoor events at 1PM (or NOON!) depending on which time zone your team was in. Now we see the creep to 4PM and 830PM starts for more ratings revenue. Look out for the Super Bowl champs to be playing to snoozing and bailing crowds at a late night venue near you. And get ready for the latest financial wizardry to soak you- the seat license. So in the grand scheme of things, this $7 hike is just an hors d’oeuvre.

THE NFL DRAFT TIEBREAKER IS WRONG

March 20, 2008

Did you notice the logjam at 3-6 this year in the draft order? Four teams all had the same record.

3- ‘F’alcons 0.516 (strength of schedule)
4- ‘R’aiders 0.516
5- ‘C’hiefs 0.516
6- ‘J’ets 0.523

The Jets lost the tiebreaker on strength of schedule. The Chiefs pick behind the Raiders because of intra-divisional standings based on common opponents. The Falcons won the coin toss.

1st round FRCJ
2nd round RCJF (NFL tiebreaker rotation format)
3rd round CJFR etc…

THE ROTATION IS WRONG! Why should the team picking second best in the first tiebreak of Round 1 get to go FIRST of these four in the next round, with everyone sliding up? The order should be reversed.

1st round FRCJ
2nd round JCRF
3rd round FRCJ etc…

If one consults the draft value chart AND the NFL makes the tiebreak as equitable as possible, the team that picked ahead of everyone and won the tiebreak in Round 1 would go LAST EVERY SUBSEQUENT ROUND AND the team that went last would go FIRST EVERY SUBSEQUENT ROUND etc..

1st round FRCJ
2nd round JCRF
3rd round JCRF etc..

WHY??? Because the difference in the lost tiebreak in Round 1 is SO HUGE that giving the LOSER the best picks in EVERY SUBSEQUENT ROUND would still not make up for the difference in Round 1! Check the draft value draft for picks 3-6.

03 2200 0550 0255 0104 0041 0026 0013
04 1800 0540 0250 0100 0040 0026 0013
05 1700 0530 0245 0096 0040 0025 0013
06 1600 0520 0240 0092 0039 0025 0012

If the Raiders got the #3 pick of Round 1 with the worst of the rest of the rounds, while the Jets got the #6 pick in Round 1 and best thereafter, the Raiders would still have 3128 points of value assigned to them while the Jets would get 2589!

In fact, we can go one step further- the NFL could give the tiebreak teams the CHOICE of taking [the best in the 1st round and the worst in every subsequent round] OR [the worst in the first and the best in every round thereafter], and I would still be willing to bet that every team would choose the former because of all of the edge in going ahead of the other teams in Round 1. At least you see the difference shrinking… teams would be willing to debate internally whether the edge in picking ahead in round #1 merits going behind every subsequent round.

Considering how microscopic the strength of schedule tiebreaker is, the current rules for rotating picks punishes tiebreak losers inordinately for no reason other than ignorance of a simple and fair alternative mentioned here.